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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 3.1%, while expectations for inflation three and five years ahead were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside modestly higher income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank’s September 2026 survey found that consumers’ median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The results, published on 23 October, offer a monthly view of household expectations across 11 euro area countries, which the ECB uses alongside other data for policy analysis.
Consumers’ median perception of inflation over the previous 12 months edged up to 3.6% from 3.5%. Longer-term expectations did not change: respondents put inflation at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead, as also reported in the July survey results. The ECB said uncertainty about inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above its level before the conflict in the Middle East began.
Households reported somewhat stronger expected income and spending growth. Expected nominal income growth for the next 12 months increased to 1.1% from 1.0%; expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%. Perceived spending growth over the previous year also increased, reaching 5.3% from 5.2%.
The outlook for economic activity and jobs moved in the opposite direction. Expectations for economic growth over the coming year fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. The ECB said respondents still expected future unemployment to be only slightly above their perceived current rate of 10.6%, indicating a broadly stable labour market outlook in the survey.
Households See Uneven Economic Pressures
The survey records how consumers expect prices, incomes and employment to change; it is not a forecast issued by the ECB’s governing bodies and does not establish what will happen. Still, those expectations matter to policymakers because they add household views to other evidence used in policy analysis. The September results present a mixed picture: near-term inflation expectations ticked up, but medium- and longer-term measures were unchanged.
The weaker growth outlook and higher expected unemployment point to greater concern about the economic outlook among respondents, even as they anticipated slightly faster income and spending growth. Those patterns can help readers understand the pressures households say they face. The figures are survey responses, however, and should not be read as confirmed changes in actual prices, earnings, output or employment.
The results also show differences by income group. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. That split matters when interpreting the aggregate figures: the overall median does not describe every household’s experience.
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How the September Survey Was Collected
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults aged 18 or older in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB says the survey complements other data sources used in policy analysis. Its release notes that, unless otherwise specified, the statistics presented refer to a 2% winsorised mean; the inflation figures described in the release include specified median measures. The underlying microdata and methodological information are available through the ECB’s survey resources. The ECB also cautions that survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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What Survey Responses Cannot Confirm
The results show reported expectations, not future outcomes. It remains unclear whether the changes in inflation, growth and unemployment expectations will persist in later survey waves or be reflected in subsequent economic data. The release does not identify what drove each month-to-month movement, so the figures alone cannot establish why respondents changed their views.
The reported group differences are averages or medians within survey categories; they do not show how every household feels or experiences prices, credit and employment. The release also says uncertainty about near-term inflation increased slightly but does not provide a numerical measure of that change in the supplied results. The survey should be read alongside other evidence, not as a standalone account of the euro area economy.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the next Consumer Expectations Survey results, covering October, for 27 November 2026. Readers can compare that release with September’s figures to see whether near-term inflation expectations, growth views and labour-market expectations continue to move in the same directions. The ECB says country-level and euro area aggregate results are published monthly through its website and Data Portal.
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Key Questions
What did the ECB’s September 2026 survey find about inflation?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Three-year expectations stayed at 2.9%, and five-year expectations remained at 2.5%.
Did respondents expect the euro area economy to improve?
No. Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2% in August. This is a survey measure of consumer expectations, not an official ECB growth forecast.
What did households expect for unemployment?
The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3% from 11.0%. Respondents’ perceived current unemployment rate was 10.6%; the ECB characterized the outlook as broadly stable because the expected rate was only slightly higher.
When will the next survey results be released?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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